Multinationals and Structural Transformation
We study the role of multinationals (MNCs) in facilitating firm-level and aggregate structural transformation. Using a stylized model of multinational...
Reaching for Yield: Evidence from Households
The existing literature has documented “reaching for yield” - the phenomenon of investing more in risky assets when interest rates drop - among...
Let the Market Speak: Using Interest Rates to Identify the Fed Information Effect
I propose a novel method to identify the exogenous monetary shock from the signaling effect of a Fed announcements in real time. The method relies on...
Research highlight
Cleansing by tight credit: Rational cycles and endogenous lending standards
Journal of Financial Economics, 150(1), 46-67
Stress-testing the banking system: what lies ahead?
Pedro Duarte Neves says stress tests must evolve to capture systemic, liquidity and cyber risks.
Stylised facts on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy
This policy note summarises the main empirical findings on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy: macroprudential policy contributes to a...
Should central banks abandon single point forecasts?
Single point forecasts for growth, inflation, interest rates, and so on are easy to comprehend and to check against outcomes, and are what otherwise...
Research highlight
Informational Black Holes in Financial Markets
Journal of Finance, 78 (6), 3099-3140
Asset Allocation and Returns in the Portfolios of the Wealthy
There is little direct empirical evidence on the investment behavior of wealthy households. Based on a proprietary database of investment portfolios...
Low Rates and Bank Loan Supply: Theory and Evidence from Japan
In this paper, we explore the consequences of low nominal interest rates for credit supply, macroeconomic outcomes and policy. Using the protracted...
On the Fragility of DeFi Lending
We develop a dynamic model of DeFi lending that incorporates the following key features: 1) borrowing and lending are decentralized, anonymous...
The spread of COVID-19 in London: Network effects and optimal lockdowns
Journal of Econometrics, 235 (2), 2125-2154
The Gap between Law and Practice in Pakistan’s Gender Reform
In the three-quarters of a century since Pakistan’s independence, parliament has adopted various laws in a bid to improve women’s legal rights. Many...
When artificial intelligence becomes a central banker
Artificial intelligence is expected to be widely used by central banks as it brings considerable cost saving and efficiency benefits. However, as this...
The Supply and Demand for Data Privacy: Evidence from Mobile Apps
This paper investigates how consumers and investors react to the standardized disclosure of data privacy practices. Since December 2020, Apple has...
