Publications

Review of Finance, 28 (2), 511–550

This paper argues that political affiliation plays a central role in shaping household expectations and consumption behavior. Using survey and...

With the deepening of China's reform and opening up, and the sustained development of the Chinese economy, the Chinese bond market has become an...

Risk model hallucination happens when models are forced to forecast the likelihood of extreme events in cases where they have not been trained with...

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 159, 104793

We consider a setting in which privately informed agents are located in a network and trade a risky asset with other agents with whom they are...

This paper investigates the impact of introducing junior unsecured loans (i.e., FinTech loans) in the small business lending market. Using French...

When members of the same household have different risk preferences, whose preference matters more for investment decisions and why? We propose an...

As artificial intelligence makes inroads into the financial system, it exacerbates existing channels of instability and creates new ones. This column...

We propose a novel approach to measure the costs of aggregate economic fluctuations, that does not require specification of preferences or the data...

We propose a novel way to estimate a portfolio’s abnormal price, the percentage gap between price and the present value of dividends computed with a...

Informality prevails in Africa, especially among women. Eighty-eight per cent of working African women were employed in the informal economy in 2022...

We study exchange rate expectations in surveys of financial professionals and find that they successfully forecast currency appreciation at the two...