Discussion Papers

Evidence from experiments, surveys, and the field has uncovered both underreaction and overreaction to new information. We provide new experimental...

We examine a novel mechanism whereby the US dollar’s global dominance can have a large, unexpected impact on foreign Treasury yields in crisis periods...

This paper is concerned with upstreamness and downstreamness of industries and countries in global value chains. Upstreamness and downstreamness...

We propose a loglinear present-value identity in which investment ("scale"), profitability ("yield"), and discount rates determine a firm’s market-to...

Ranking sectors and countries within global value chains is of paramount importance to estimate risks and forecast growth in large economies. However...

We study the impact of green investors on stock prices in a dynamic equilibrium model where investors are green, passive or active. Green investors...

This paper argues that political affiliation plays a central role in shaping household expectations and consumption behavior. Using survey and...

We consider a setting in which privately informed agents are located in a network and trade a risky asset with other agents with whom they are...

This paper investigates the impact of introducing junior unsecured loans (i.e., FinTech loans) in the small business lending market. Using French...

When members of the same household have different risk preferences, whose preference matters more for investment decisions and why? We propose an...

We propose a novel approach to measure the costs of aggregate economic fluctuations, that does not require specification of preferences or the data...

We propose a novel way to estimate a portfolio’s abnormal price, the percentage gap between price and the present value of dividends computed with a...

We study exchange rate expectations in surveys of financial professionals and find that they successfully forecast currency appreciation at the two...

Hybrid regimes feature combinations of democratic and autocratic attributes. Their common element is a leader who cultivates a clientele of favored...

We study the short-term effects and long-term consequences of Fed crisis interventions on market fears — the risk perception of large asset price...

We examine how the tail risk of currency returns over the past 20 years were impacted by central bank (monetary and liquidity) measures across the...