News Shocks and Asset Prices
We study the importance of anticipated shocks (news) for understanding the comovement between macroeconomic quantities and asset prices. We find that...
When Arm’s Length Is Too Far. Relationship Banking over the Credit Cycle
Using a novel way to identify relationship and transaction banks, we study how banks’ lending techniques affect credit constraints of small and medium...
The Dynamics of Financially Constrained Arbitrage
We develop a model of financially constrained arbitrage, and use it to study the dynamics of arbitrage capital, liquidity, and asset prices...
Multilateral surveillance: Ensuring a focus on key risks to global stability
The 2007/9 crisis and the ongoing transformation of the global economy call for a rethink of the scope of the Fund’s multilateral surveillance. This...
What the Swiss FX shock says about risk models
The Swiss central bank last week abandoned its euro exchange rate ceiling. This column argues that the fallout from the decision demonstrates the...
Averting financial crisis
Jeffrey Chwieroth and Jon Danielsson discuss the political challenges of the macroprudential agenda in the ESRC's annual flagship magazine Britain in...
Brave New World? Macro Prudential Policy and the new Political Economy of The Federal Reserve
The Financial Crisis that started in 2007 ushered in new responsibilities for central banks, particularly for what is termed “macro-prudential policy...
Great Expectations, Veto Players, and the Changing Politics of Banking Crises
How have the politics of banking crises changed over the long run? Unlike existing static accounts, we offer a dynamic theory emphasizing how the...
Information Asymmetries, Volatility, Liquidity, and the Tobin Tax
We develop a tractable model in which trade is generated by asymmetry in agents' information sets. We show that, even if news are not generated by a...
The Optimal Consumption Function in a Brownian Model of Accumulation Part B: Existence of Solutions of Boundary Value Problems
In Part A of the present study, subtitled 'The Consumption Function as Solution of a Boundary Value Problem' Discussion Paper No. TE/96/297, STICERD...
Destabilizing carry trades
We offer a model of currency carry trades in which carry traders earn positive excess returns if they successfully coordinate on supplying excessive...
Does the Bond-Stock Earning Yield Differential Model Predict Equity Market Corrections Better Than High P/E Models?
In this paper, we extend the literature on crash prediction models in three main respects. First, we relate explicitly crash prediction measures and...
Moral Hazard and Debt Maturity
We present a model of the maturity of a bank’s uninsured debt. The bank borrows funds and chooses afterwards the riskiness of its assets. This moral...
How to lose money in derivatives: examples from hedge funds and bank trading departments
What makes futures hedge funds fail? The common ingredient is over betting and not being diversified in some bad scenarios that can lead to disaster...
The Economics of Collateral
In this paper we study how the use of collateral is evolving under the influence of regulatory reform and changing market structure. We start with a...
