Firms in Financial Distress
We use simple accounting measures to estimate the share of private manufacturing firms in financial distress under a hypothetical scenario of losing...
Reform Chatter and Democracy
We explore the dynamics of media chatter about economic reforms using text analysis from about a billion newspaper articles in 28 languages. We show...
The neighbourhood effect of reforms after crises
Countries reform when their neighbours have reformed too, especially in the aftermath of economic crises. This column examines business regulatory...
Financial Volatility and Economic Growth, 1870–2016
We investigate the causal impact of financial risk on economic growth, using a panel spanning 150 years and 74 countries. Persistent low risk...
Wisdom of Crowds Detects COVID-19 Severity Ahead of Officially Available Data
During the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to determine its severity, yet access to reliable data is challenging. We investigate the relation...
Higher-Order Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service
We assess the ability of an information aggregation mechanism that operates in the over-the-counter market for financial derivatives to reduce...
Less red tape, more local entrepreneurship and foreign direct investment: the path to recovery
More flexible business regulation encourages both the development of startups and the inflow of foreign investment, write Simeon Djankov, Dorina...
Asset Pricing with Index Investing
We theoretically analyze how index investing affects financial markets using a dynamic exchange economy with heterogeneous investors and two Lucas...
COVID-19 in Developing Economies
At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was hoped that warm weather and younger populations would shield many developing countries from the...
Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents after Oil Shocks
This paper explores the effect of oil shocks on electoral outcomes. Using a new polling and election dataset for 207 elections across 50 democracies...
COVID-19: an opportunity to digitise property transactions
Online transactions bring speed and cost efficiency, fostering the expansion of the real estate market, write Marie Delion and Simeon Djankov.
The political scar of epidemics
What will be the political legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic? This column uses data from the 2006-2018 Gallup World Polls to show that epidemic exposure...
The Political Scar of Epidemics
What will be the political legacy of the Coronavirus pandemic? We find that epidemic exposure in an individual’s “impressionable years” (ages 18 to 25...
Inflation after the pandemic: Theory and practice
The correlation between monetary growth and inflation has an historic pedigree as long as your arm. This column argues that rejecting the likelihood...
Regulatory reforms: the silver lining after COVID-19
Fiscal crises spur regulatory reform, which, in turn, speed up economic recovery, write Simeon Djankov, Dorina Georgieva and Hibret Maemir.
How governments can ease the entry of ‘recovery entrepreneurs'
Crises bring creative destruction. It's time to help new companies and job opportunities emerge, write Simeon Djankov and Frederic Meunier.