Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 159, 104793
How AI can undermine financial stability
As artificial intelligence makes inroads into the financial system, it exacerbates existing channels of instability and creates new ones. This column...
The calming of short-term market fear and its long-term consequences: The central banks’ dilemma
A growth plan for Greece
In January 2020, the Greek government appointed a Commission to propose a growth plan for the Greek economy. The Pissarides Commission produced a...
A Growth Strategy for the Greek Economy
The Greek government appointed in January 2020 a Commission chaired by Nobel Prize winner Christopher Pissarides to propose a growth plan. The...
An Unconventional FX Tail Risk Story
We examine how the tail risk of currency returns over the past 20 years were impacted by central bank (monetary and liquidity) measures across the...
On the use of artificial intelligence in financial regulations and the impact on financial stability
As the financial authorities increase their use of artificial intelligence (AI), micro regulations, such as consumer protection and routine banking...
Artificial intelligence and financial stability
The use of artificial intelligence in the private sector is accelerating, and the financial authorities have no choice but to follow if they are to...
Let the Market Speak: Using Interest Rates to Identify the Fed Information Effect
I propose a novel method to identify the exogenous monetary shock from the signaling effect of a Fed announcements in real time. The method relies on...
Stress-testing the banking system: what lies ahead?
Pedro Duarte Neves says stress tests must evolve to capture systemic, liquidity and cyber risks.
Stylised facts on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy
This policy note summarises the main empirical findings on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy: macroprudential policy contributes to a...
Should central banks abandon single point forecasts?
Single point forecasts for growth, inflation, interest rates, and so on are easy to comprehend and to check against outcomes, and are what otherwise...
Low Rates and Bank Loan Supply: Theory and Evidence from Japan
In this paper, we explore the consequences of low nominal interest rates for credit supply, macroeconomic outcomes and policy. Using the protracted...
On the Fragility of DeFi Lending
We develop a dynamic model of DeFi lending that incorporates the following key features: 1) borrowing and lending are decentralized, anonymous...
The spread of COVID-19 in London: Network effects and optimal lockdowns
Journal of Econometrics, 235 (2), 2125-2154
