Latent fragility: Conditioning banks' joint probability of default on the financial cycle
Journal of International Money and Finance, 146, 103107
Why so many crises happen when we know why they happen and how to prevent them
Financial crises are not complicated, and many claim to know why they happen and how to prevent them. Why then do they happen with such alarming...
Unintended Consequences of Holding Dollar Assets
We examine a novel mechanism whereby the US dollar’s global dominance can have a large, unexpected impact on foreign Treasury yields in crisis periods...
Correlation between upstreamness and downstreamness in random global value chains
This paper is concerned with upstreamness and downstreamness of industries and countries in global value chains. Upstreamness and downstreamness...
The continuing financial fragility of banks
Banks remain fragile, which could be reduced if they held more equity and less debt. Bankers, however, fear this could affect their compensation...
How a regulated utility innovates without breaking things
Safety and stability are essential for public utilities. But they face pressure to innovate to keep up with technological innovation, environmental...
Upstreamness and downstreamness in input-output analysis from local and aggregate information
Ranking sectors and countries within global value chains is of paramount importance to estimate risks and forecast growth in large economies. However...
How the financial authorities can take advantage of artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence will both be of considerable help to the financial authorities and bring new challenges. This column argues the authorities...
Chinese Debt Capital Markets - An Emerging Global Market with Chinese Characteristics
With the deepening of China's reform and opening up, and the sustained development of the Chinese economy, the Chinese bond market has become an...
When risk models hallucinate
Risk model hallucination happens when models are forced to forecast the likelihood of extreme events in cases where they have not been trained with...
Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 159, 104793
How AI can undermine financial stability
As artificial intelligence makes inroads into the financial system, it exacerbates existing channels of instability and creates new ones. This column...
The calming of short-term market fear and its long-term consequences: The central banks’ dilemma
We study the short-term effects and long-term consequences of Fed crisis interventions on market fears — the risk perception of large asset price...
A growth plan for Greece
In January 2020, the Greek government appointed a Commission to propose a growth plan for the Greek economy. The Pissarides Commission produced a...
A Growth Strategy for the Greek Economy
The Greek government appointed in January 2020 a Commission chaired by Nobel Prize winner Christopher Pissarides to propose a growth plan. The...
