Low risk as a predictor of financial crises
Reliable indicators of future financial crises are important for policymakers and practitioners. While most indicators consider an observation of high...
Opinion Pieces
Macroprudential stress tests
Current stress testing of banks is focused on the resiliency of individual banks to exogenous shocks. This column describes how the next generation of...
Cryptocurrencies don't make sense
Cryptocurrencies are supposedly a new and superior form of money and investments – the way of the future. The author of this column, however, does not...
Why investors should be weaned off tight tracking to market indices
Exploitative momentum investing would shrivel in the absence of benchmarkers.
Artificial intelligence and the stability of markets
Artificial intelligence is increasingly used to tackle all sorts of problems facing people and societies. This column considers the potential benefits...
Brexit and systemic risk
Brexit is likely to cause considerable disruption for financial markets. Some worry that it may also increase systemic risk. This column revisits the...
Why macropru can end up being procyclical
Discretionary macroprudential policies aim to be countercyclical by adjusting risk-taking across the financial cycle. This column argues that the...
The fatal flaw in macropru: It ignores political risk
Political risk is a major cause of systemic financial risk. This column argues that both the integrity and the legitimacy of macroprudential policy...
Why it doesn't make sense to hold bonds
Investor demand for bonds is very high. This column argues that this is surprising because under almost any likely inflation scenario, including...
On the financial market consequences of Brexit
Brexit creates new opportunities and new risks for the British and EU financial markets. Both could benefit, but a more likely outcome is a fall in...
Cyber risk as systemic risk
The threat to the financial system posed by cyber risk is often claimed to be systemic. This column argues against this, pointing out that almost all...
Insurance and systemic risk: No easy conclusions
The IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report devotes for the first time a chapter to the systemic risks potentially associated with the...
Stress testing and macroprudential regulation: A transatlantic assessment
Since the onset of the Global Crisis in 2007-08, stress testing has emerged as a major component of the supervisory toolkit. This column introduces a...
Everybody right, everybody wrong: Plural rationalities in macroprudential regulation
Macroprudential policy has become increasingly popular in the aftermath of the Global Crisis, but it remains controversial. This column argues that...
The macro-micro conflict
There has always been conflict between macro- and microeconomic regulation. Microeconomic policy reigns supreme during good times, and macro during...
Volatility, financial crises and Minsky's hypothesis
Does low volatility in financial markets mean that another financial crisis is more likely? And should we be worried when everything is OK? This...
