Forecasting Crashes with a Smile
We derive option-implied bounds on the probability of a crash in an individual stock, and argue a priori that the lower bound should be close to the...
DP 936
The spread of COVID-19 in London: Network effects and optimal lockdowns
Journal of Econometrics, 235 (2), 2125-2154
How we learned to stop counting cases and worry about network effects instead
The commuter hub was key to the spread of COVID-19 in London. The authors of the article estimate it contributed to over 42% of all London cases. When...
The Spread of COVID-19 in London: Network Effects and Optimal Lockdowns
We generalise a stochastic version of the workhorse SIR (Susceptible-Infectious- Removed) epidemiological model to account for spatial dynamics...
DP 817
