Conservatism at No Real Cost: Monetary Policy Delegation Reconsidered
This paper re-examines the role of conservatism in the delegation of monetary policy to an independent central bank. We develop a tractable framework...
Life Without the Stability Pact
There is now a real chance that the Euro member states will not abide by the strict rules of the Stability Pact. Economic and political pressures are...
Financial Crises: Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
During recent decades most financial crises were caused by excessive public sector expansion. The current Asian crisis, however, had its roots in...
A Model of the Lender of Last Resort
A paper by Charles Goodhart of LSE FMG and Haizhou Huang of the International Monetary Fund.
Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information And Stock Prices
This paper presents empirical evidence on the existence of structural breaks in the fundamentals process underlying US stock prices. We develop an...
Boom In, Bust Out: Young Households and the Housing Price Cycle
The UK experienced a major residential real estate boom-bust cycle from the mid-Eighties to the mid-Nineties, accompanies by unprecedented shifts in...
Utility Functions For Central Bankers: The Not So Drastic Quadratic
Following Blinder’s (1997) suggestion, we examine the implications for the optimal interest rate rule which follow from relaxing the assumption that...
Pension Fund Reform and European Financial Markets
Pension reform is widely seen as essential in order to defuse the difficulties EU governments would otherwise face in respect of their social security...
Buy on Rumours - Sell on News: A Manipulative Trading Strategy
A trader who receives a signal about a future public announcement can exploit this private information twice. First, when he receives his signal, and...
Mutual Fund Performance: Evidence from the UK
This paper uses a large sample containing the complete return histories of 2300 UK open-ended mutual funds over a 23-year period to measure fund...
A Dilution Cost Approach to Financial Intermediation and Securities Markets
This paper proposes a model of financial markets and corporate finance, with asymmetric information and no taxes, where equity issues, Bank debt and...
The Dangers of Data-Driven Inference: The Case of Calender Effects in Stock Returns
Economics is primarily a non-experimental science. Typically, we cannot generate new data sets on which to test hypotheses independently of the data...
Data Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap
In this paper we utilize White’s Reality Check bootstrap methodology (White (1997)) to evaluate simple technical trading rules while quantifying the...