A Brief Affectionate History of the Financial Markets Group 1987 to 2017
This is a history of the first 30 years of the Financial Markets Group of the London School of Economics and Political Science. The FMG has become a...
Low risk as a predictor of financial crises
Reliable indicators of future financial crises are important for policymakers and practitioners. While most indicators consider an observation of high...
Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises
We study the effects of stock market volatility on risk-taking and financial crises by constructing a cross-country database spanning up to 211 years...
Macroprudential stress tests
Current stress testing of banks is focused on the resiliency of individual banks to exogenous shocks. This column describes how the next generation of...
Cryptocurrencies don't make sense
Cryptocurrencies are supposedly a new and superior form of money and investments – the way of the future. The author of this column, however, does not...
Macroprudential Stress Tests and Policies: Stretching for Robust and Implementable Frameworks
Non-supervisory bank stress testing is becoming firmly embedded in the post-crisis macroprudential frameworks of major financial sectors around the...
Why investors should be weaned off tight tracking to market indices
Exploitative momentum investing would shrivel in the absence of benchmarkers.
Did central banks cause the last financial crisis? Will they cause the next?
Recent history suggests that raising interest rates higher than warranted by macroeconomic prospects would not be the right policy for financial...
Towards an understanding of credit cycles: do all credit booms cause crises?
Macroprudential policy is now based around a countercyclical buffer, relating capital requirements for banks to the degree of excess credit in the...
Artificial intelligence and the stability of markets
Artificial intelligence is increasingly used to tackle all sorts of problems facing people and societies. This column considers the potential benefits...
Artificial intelligence, financial risk management and systemic risk
Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing how financial institutions are operated and regulated. The authors discuss the benefits and danger...
The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates
We present a new, theoretically motivated, forecasting variable for exchange rates that is based on the prices of quanto index contracts, and show via...
Are banks still special?
Banks have long played a special role in the financial system. Individuals and institutions use banks to access the payment system, and central banks...
Consistent Measures of Systemic Risk
This paper presents a methodology to infer multivariate densities that characterize the asset values for a system of financial institutions, and...