Phase transitions in debt recycling
Debt recycling is an aggressive equity extraction strategy that potentially permits faster repayment of a mortgage. While equity progressively builds...
Credibility, trust, and perception of authorities’ performance
The credibility of an institution is, almost, synonymous with how well it is trusted. This column uses survey data to examine how trust in various...
Latent fragility: Conditioning banks' joint probability of default on the financial cycle
Journal of International Money and Finance, 146, 103107
How the financial authorities can respond to AI threats to financial stability
Artificial intelligence can act to either stabilise the financial system or to increase the frequency and severity of financial crises. This second...
AI financial crises
The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence is transforming the financial industry. This first of a two-column series argues that AI may either...
Research highlight
High-frequency trading in the stock market and the costs of options market making
Journal of Financial Economics, 159, 103900
Why so many crises happen when we know why they happen and how to prevent them
Financial crises are not complicated, and many claim to know why they happen and how to prevent them. Why then do they happen with such alarming...
Unintended Consequences of Holding Dollar Assets
We examine a novel mechanism whereby the US dollar’s global dominance can have a large, unexpected impact on foreign Treasury yields in crisis periods...
Correlation between upstreamness and downstreamness in random global value chains
This paper is concerned with upstreamness and downstreamness of industries and countries in global value chains. Upstreamness and downstreamness...
The continuing financial fragility of banks
Banks remain fragile, which could be reduced if they held more equity and less debt. Bankers, however, fear this could affect their compensation...
How a regulated utility innovates without breaking things
Safety and stability are essential for public utilities. But they face pressure to innovate to keep up with technological innovation, environmental...
Upstreamness and downstreamness in input-output analysis from local and aggregate information
Ranking sectors and countries within global value chains is of paramount importance to estimate risks and forecast growth in large economies. However...
How the financial authorities can take advantage of artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence will both be of considerable help to the financial authorities and bring new challenges. This column argues the authorities...
Chinese Debt Capital Markets - An Emerging Global Market with Chinese Characteristics
With the deepening of China's reform and opening up, and the sustained development of the Chinese economy, the Chinese bond market has become an...
When risk models hallucinate
Risk model hallucination happens when models are forced to forecast the likelihood of extreme events in cases where they have not been trained with...
