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The ongoing war in Ukraine has resulted in large damages to both public infrastructure and private corporate assets. The extent of these damages will determine Ukraine’s economic recovery path, in tandem with the significant human capital changes. Using a sectoral bottom-up approach, this column estimates that 7.5% of Ukraine’s productive capacity has been lost since the start of the war in 2022. However, with recovery of occupied territories, reconstruction financing, and the return of many refugees from abroad, much of this capacity can be retrieved and growth can be restored.
